Sunday, January 30, 2011

الإنجيل اليومي بحسب الطقس الماروني
يا ربّ، إِلى مَن نَذهَب وكَلامُ الحَياةِ الأَبَدِيَّةِ عِندَك ؟
(يوحنا 6: 68)

الاثنين 31 كانون الثاني/يناير 2011
الاثنين الرابع بعد الدنح

في الكنيسة المارونيّة اليوم :مار يوحنّا بوسكو المعترف


إنجيل القدّيس يوحنّا .38-31:4

فِي أَثْنَاءِ ذلِكَ، كَانَ التَّلامِيذُ يَطْلُبُونَ مِنْهُ قَائِلين: «رابِّي، كُلْ». فَقَالَ لَهُم: «أَنَا لِي طَعَامٌ آكُلُهُ وأَنْتُم لا تَعْرِفُونَهُ». فقَالَ التَّلامِيذُ بَعضُهُم لِبَعض: «هَلْ جَاءَهُ أَحَدٌ بِمَا يَأْكُلُهُ؟». قَالَ لَهُم يَسُوع: «طَعَامِي أَنْ أَعْمَلَ مَشِيئَةِ مَنْ أَرْسَلَنِي، وأَنْ أُتِمَّ عَمَلَهُ. أَمَا تَقُولُونَ أَنْتُم: هِيَ أَرْبَعَةُ أَشْهُرٍ وَيَحِينُ الحِصَاد؟ وهَا أَنَا أَقُولُ لَكُم: إِرْفَعُوا عُيُونَكُم وٱنْظُرُوا الحُقُولَ إِنَّهَا قَدِ ٱبيَضَّتْ لِلحِصَاد. أَلحَاصِدُ يَأْخُذُ أُجْرَة، ويَجْمَعُ ثَمَرًا لِحَيَاةٍ أَبَدِيَّة، لِكَي يَفْرَحَ الزَّارِعُ والحَاصِدُ مَعًا. فيَصْدُقُ القَوْل: وَاحِدٌ يَزْرَعُ وآخَرُ يَحْصُد. أَنَا أَرْسَلْتُكُم لِتَحْصُدُوا مَا لَمْ تَتْعَبُوا أَنْتُم فِيه. آخَرُون تَعِبُوا، وأَنْتُم في تَعَبِهِم دَخَلْتُم».

النصوص مأخوذة من الترجمة الليتُرجيّة المارونيّة - إعداد اللجنة الكتابيّة التابعة للجنة الشؤون الليتورجيّة البطريركيّة المارونيّة (طبعة ثانية – 2007)



تعليق على الإنجيل:

ثيوفيلاكتُس (نحو 1050 - 1109)، أسقف
تعليق على العهد الجديد
"طَعَامِي أَنْ أَعْمَلَ مَشِيئَةِ مَنْ أَرْسَلَنِي، وأَنْ أُتِمَّ عَمَلَهُ"


طلب التلاميذ بإلحاح من الربّ أن يأكل، أي أنّهم توسّلوه، ليس بطريقة وقحة، إنمّا بدافع حبّهم لسيّدهم لأنّهم رأوا أنّه تعب من المسير والحرارة المضنية. ولكن إذ عرف أنّ المرأة السامريّة كانت على وشك أن تحضر إليه كافّة سكان المنطقة تقريبًا، وأنّ السامريّين سيؤمنون به، أجاب الربّ: "أَنَا لِي طَعَامٌ آكُلُهُ وأَنْتُم لا تَعْرِفُونَهُ" وهو خلاص البشر. كما أنّني أرغب في هذا الطعام أكثر ممّا ترغبون جميعًا في الطعام المادي. ولكن أنتم يا تلاميذي، لا تعرفون الطعام الذي يجب أن آكله. لأنّكم لا تفهمون بوضوح كلماتي الغامضة ولا يسعكم سبر أغوارها، ولا تعرفون أنّني أدعو خلاص البشر طعامي. بتعبير آخر، "لا تعرفون هذا الطعام" يعني أنّكم لا تعرفون أنّ السامريّين سيؤمنون ويخلصون. ماذا فعل التلاميذ حينئذ؟ بقوا مرتبكين، "فقَالَ بَعضُهُم لِبَعض: هَلْ جَاءَهُ أَحَدٌ بِمَا يَأْكُلُهُ؟" إذ كانوا يخشونه دائمًا، لم يتجرّؤوا على طرح المزيد من الأسئلة عليه. ولكن على الرغم من أنّهم لم يسألوه، كشف الله عن معنى كلماته الغامضة قائلاً: "طَعَامِي أَنْ أَعْمَلَ مَشِيئَةِ مَنْ أَرْسَلَنِي، وأَنْ أُتِمَّ عَمَلَهُ (مشيئة الله هي خلاص البشر)". إنّ الأنبياء والشريعة لم يتمّموا عمل الله لأنّهم كانوا أنفسهم ناقصين وغير كاملين، وكانوا قادرين على أن يكشفوا فقط عن أنواع الأمور الجيّدة الآتية وينذروا بها. ولكنّ الربّ أتمّ عمل الله، الذي هو خلاصنا وتجديدنا. يتبيّن لي أنّ عمل الله يعني أيضًا الإنسان نفسه، وقد أتمّه ابن الله وحده. وقد قام بذلك عبر الكشف عن أنّ طبيعتنا باتت غير خاطئة به، ما إن أظهر كمالها وتمامها في كلّ عمل جيّد بواسطة حياته الإلهيّة في الجسد البشري، متخطّيًا رغبات العالم (في كلّ مرحلة) حتّى النهاية. إنّ الشريعة هي أيضًا عمل الله، بما أنّها كُتبت "بِإِصبَعِ الله" (خر31: 18؛ تث9: 10)، وقد أكمل الله الشريعة "فغايَةُ الشَّريعةِ هي المسيح، لِتَبْرير ِكُلِّ مُؤمِن" (رو10: 4). وعندما تمّت كافّة متطلّبات الشريعة جعلها تتوقّف، محوّلاً العبادة الجسديّة إلى روحيّة.
US Warns Lebanon on Militants in GovernmenT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration on Monday warned Lebanon's political leaders that continuing U.S. support for their country will be difficult if the militant Hezbollah movement takes a dominant role in government. The makeup of the Lebanese government is Lebanon's decision, the State Department said. But the larger the role for Hezbollah, the "more problematic" for relations with Washington, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said. The United States considers Iranian--backed Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization and has imposed sanctions against it and its members. U.S. officials do not meet with Hezbollah members and U.S. money is not supposed to further the group's activities. Crowley's comments came as Hezbollah moved into position to control the next Lebanese government as it secured enough support in parliament to nominate the candidate for prime minister. "Our view of Hezbollah is very well--known," he told reporters. "We see it as a terrorist organization, and we'll have great concerns about a government within which a Hezbollah plays a leading role." Crowley declined to say what the United States would do if Hezbollah's candidate becomes prime minister and is able to form a government, but he said it would be hard to carry on business as usual if that happens. Asked whether the U.S. would be able to continue economic support for a Hezbollah--controlled government in Lebanon, he replied, "That would be difficult for the United States to do." The U.S. has provided Lebanon with hundreds of millions of dollars in economic and military aid over the past five years, following the withdrawal of Syrian forces that had controlled the country for decades. The United States called the fragile Lebanese democracy a counterweight to authoritarian and militant influences in the Middle East. Washington underwrote Lebanon's army as a counterweight to Hezbollah, and argued that without U.S. support Iran or Syria might fill the vacuum. Congressional critics of that policy cite a worry that the weapons and equipment could slip into the hands of Hezbollah for use against Israel. Hezbollah, which forced the collapse of the Lebanese coalition government last week, fought a monthlong war with Israel in August 2006. Since 2006, the U.S. has provided four kinds of security assistance to Lebanon, the bulk of which has been about $500 million in sales of weapons and equipment such as mortars, rifles, grenade launchers, ammunition, body armor, radios and Humvee utility vehicles. The U.S. also has increased its spending on military education and training for Lebanese officers and on programs designed to improve Lebanon's ability to counter terrorism threats. Rep. Howard Berman, a Democrat and the former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, was among lawmakers who last year blocked $100 million in U.S. military aid to Lebanon. They relented and allowed the money to go through after the White House gave assurances in classified briefings that the aid bolsters both Lebanese and U.S. national security and would not be hijacked by Hezbollah. Berman's successor as head of the committee, Rep. Ileana Ros--Lehtinen, a Republican, has raised similar concerns.
Tree Planted in Ealing to Remember Holocaust VictimS
Ealing, Englnad -- Ealing Council Leader Julian Bell and Mayor of Ealing, Councillor Rajinder Mann, have planted a tree in front of the council's Perceval House offices to commemorate the victims of the Holocaust. Yesterday (January 27), was the 66th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz concentration camp in south-west Poland. The tree was planted in remembrance of all the victims of the Nazi Holocaust and all other victims of persecution and torture around the World, including those in Armenia, Assyria, Cambodia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Sri Lanka, Rwanda and Darfur. Councillor Julian Bell, Leader of Ealing Council, said: "Holocaust Memorial Day is an important opportunity for us all to think about what we can do in our own small way as individuals and as a community to protect one another against discrimination. I hope our children and grand children will commemorate this day for many years to come and continue to challenge persecution."
The World's Christians -- a New Wave of Persecution
While Americans were cozily gathered for family festivities over the Christmas and New Year's holidays, a rather different scene was being played out in Alexandria, Egypt. As Egypt's Coptic Christians gathered to enter the Two Saints Church in Alexandria for worship, a horrendous bomb went off, killing 21 of them and injuring more than 70. More sinister than the fact that the Christians had been jeered at by Muslim mobs shouting the militant "Allahu Akbar" (God is great) was the fact that extremist Muslim websites had listed 64 Coptic churches as their targets. Two Saints Church was the first on the list; some of the other churches on the extremist website list were in Canada and Australia. Canadian Copts took care to ensure that better-than-usual security was arranged for their church services. Christmas was not so cozy in other countries either. In the Philippines, a Catholic church was bombed on Christmas Day. In Jos, Nigeria, 38 Christians were killed in a Christmas Eve church bomb blast set by militant Muslims. Nor did the Muslim attacks end with the passing of the Christian holiday season of Christmas. On January 11, an Egyptian policeman on a train north of Cairo shot deliberately at five Egyptian Copts, killing one of them. He also was heard to shout "Allahu Akbar" as he fired his weapon. The point here is not to single out militant Muslims, who are known almost always to harbor a deep rage against Christians that sometimes escalates into murder. Some government regimes, notably atheist ones, have fostered an environment of deep animosity toward Christians.
• In the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi, U.S. diplomat Christian Marchant was brutally manhandled in early January by government security forces when he tried to visit a Roman Catholic priest, Father Van Ly, who had spent 15 years in prison since he was first picked up by the authorities in 1977. (Read that story)
• In China, one of the country's best-known Christian lawyers, Gao Zhisheng, was being held over Christmas by secret police who had kidnapped him in April 2010 because of his leading role in China's growing human rights movement. Gao had previously disappeared into police custody for 14 months, when he was beaten mercilessly, tied up with plastic bags, and told, "You must forget you are human. You're a beast." During even earlier kidnappings by secret police, Gao's torture had included having his genitals pricked by toothpicks. (Read my earlier commentary on Gao Zhisheng)
cross in cuffs persecutionThe world's Christian community, at about 2.1 billion, is so large that many people find it hard to imagine that Christians anywhere could be under threat. But that would be a tragic misconception. Mark Seddon, a journalist for Britain's Independent newspaper -- hardly a "right-wing" publication -- wrote: "We may be witnessing a new age of Christian persecution" around the world. Fortunately, even the U.S. State Department has taken notice and since 1999 has issued an annual report on the findings of its diplomats about the state of religious freedom around the world. The report is tasked with singling out various "countries of particular concern" for the way they treat Christians and followers of other faiths. Not surprisingly, countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Iran, Burma, Iraq and Vietnam regularly show up on the State Department list and the 2010 report was no exception. Christians of all stripes, from Roman Catholics to evangelicals, are understandably concerned when their brothers and sisters in the faith face persecution, suffering, and even death. But even agnostics and atheists ought to pay attention when followers of any religion, anywhere in the world, are singled out for persecution. The state of religious liberty in any country is like the proverbial canary in the coal mine as an indicator of that country's overall political freedom. After all, it was the wave after wave of Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish immigrants washing up on the shores of America for the first three centuries after the Pilgrims arrived in 1620 who brought to America an awareness of the supreme value of freedom of conscience. In many parts of the world, however, persecuted Christians are not in a position to pick up and leave as entire communities, let alone come to the United States. For that reason, it is the responsibility of us who are free to practice our faith to tirelessly call to account those regimes which either actively persecute or passively tolerate persecution of Christians. I don't think this means that we should have refused to host a White House state dinner for Chinese President Hu Jintao last week. After all, whether we like his regime or not, Americans can hardly ignore it because our mutual economic futures are apparently inseparable. But ordinary Americans should be standing up and doing the equivalent of banging sauce-pans in the streets, making as much public noise as possible, to express our disgust at regime-approved, and even regime-organized, persecution. From Aasia Bibi, a Pakistani Christian woman under death sentence for "blasphemy," to Iranian Christians rounded up in a regime crackdown on "house churches" and held in brutal conditions in Tehran's Evin Prison, if we make enough noise, even the prisoners might hear and be encouraged.
The Assyrian Church of the EasR
As you may be aware, several Christian churches in Kirkuk, Mosul, Basra, and Baghdad, as well as throughout the rest of Iraq, cancelled their festivities this past Christmas. Ever since the massacre of worshippers in Baghdad's Church of Our Lady of Salvation last November--followed by attacks on Christian neighborhoods in the city--the Christians of Iraq have been living in a state of unrelieved terror, and they simply do not dare celebrate their faith too openly right now. Moreover, there is no reason to imagine that their situation will become any more tolerable in any conceivable near future. There are beleaguered Christian communities throughout much of the Muslim world, of course, but it is quite possible that the last remnants of ancient Persian Christianity in Iraq and perhaps Iran will disappear in our lifetimes. If so, and if Persian Christianity is largely reduced to a fragmentary diaspora community, it will mark the end of yet another tragic episode in one of the more extraordinary tales in Christian history--though it is a tale regarding which most Christians know absolutely nothing. Most of the Christians of Iraq belong to "Assyrian" tradition: the tradition, that is, of the Church of the East (often, and somewhat opprobriously, called the "Nestorian" Church) and of its sixteenth-century offshoot the Chaldean Catholic Church (occasionally, and somewhat opprobriously, called the "Uniate" Chaldean Church). Today, even many Christians who know something of the Eastern churches tend to think of the Assyrian communions as little more than exotic marginal sects; even among the "Oriental" churches (that is, the ancient Eastern communions that did not adopt the Christological formula of Chalcedon in the fifth century) they are often regarded as the least significant. And yet at one time--from late antiquity right up into the high middle ages--the Church of the East was, in geographic terms, far and away the largest Christian communion in the world, and the most actively evangelical. Had there been such a thing as accurate cartography in the early thirteenth century, any good map of the Christian world might have suggested to a casual observer that European Christianity was little more than a local phenomenon, a sort of provincial annex at the western edge of Assyrian Christendom. Demographically, of course, the balances tipped in the opposite direction. Still, though, the Church of the East was anything but a marginal communion. The Christianity of all of Syria was from a very early period both an exceedingly scholarly and an exceedingly ascetical tradition. But there was also something of a difference in sensibility between the religious culture to the west, whose intellectual center was Antioch, and that to the East, whose intellectual center was Nisibis. What became the distinct Assyrian tradition, with its distinctive Christological vocabulary, emerged out of the latter. After Nisibis was conquered by Persia in 363, the educated Christians of the city removed to Edessa and other parts of Syria still under Byzantine control; but a little more than a century later, when the Emperor Zeno (d. 491) attempted to impose the Chalcedonian settlement throughout the region, the East Syrian Christian scholars were forced to retreat to Nisibis again, and to the shelter of the Persian Empire, which turned out to be quite tolerant of them. In 498, the bishop of Seleucia-Ctesiphon assumed the title "Patriarch of the East." After 553, when the Second Council of Constantinople formally condemned the teachings of Theodore of Mopsuestia (c. 350-429), the Antiochian theologian and biblical exegete whose writings were foundational for East Syrian theology, the Assyrian Church was more or less a theological world all to itself. As it happened, however, this proved to be anything but a historical catastrophe. Pushed out beyond the farthest boundaries of the Byzantine empire, with no hope of reconciliation, the Assyrian Church found itself on the frontier of all of Asia, where no other Christians could even hope to venture. The Christian scholars of Nisibis and, later, Jundishapur were a disciplined monastic community, devoted to the study of theology and philosophy, as well as to the translation of scripture, Christian literature, and classical Greek texts into Syriac, and renowned for the quality of their medical training. Their zeal for winning converts did not seem to falter before the vast geographical distances or dangerously alien cultures of the Central and East Asia. The Church established itself over time not only in the Mesopotamian region of the Persian Empire, but in eastern Anatolia, Kurdistan, Turkestan, and well beyond. In 635, Patriarch Yashuyab II (d. 643) inaugurated a mission to China that flourished right through the age of the Khans. East Syrian Christian missions naturally followed the trade routes to the Far East. Merchant caravans from the Arabian Peninsula, India, Central Asia, and China passed through Seleucia-Ctesiphon, and the monks of the Assyrian Church--with their very useful technical, scribal, and medical skills with them--followed in their van, looking for places where their training would make them and the gospel they had to preach welcome. Simply in providing trained physicians and scholars, the East Syrian Church often proved itself an immense benefit to the areas where it settled. Wherever the Church established a new bishopric in its eastward migrations, it built a school, a library, and a hospital. By the late fifth century, the Assyrian mission to Turkestan was under way and would in time reach out to the Mongols. In 781 a Turkish king petitioned Nisibis for a bishop, and soon Episcopal sees were established in Tashkent, Bukhara, and Samarkand. Soon missions were also sent to the Keraits, Uighurs, and other Central Asian tribes. And then there was China. We know much of the early story of the "Radiant Religion"--that is, Christianity--in China principally from a stone stele dating from 781 and discovered by Jesuit missionaries in Sian-fu in the Shaanxi province in 1625. The T'ang Emperor T'ai-tsung (d. 649) granted an audience to a Persian monk around 638 and was impressed enough (or indifferent enough) to give him permission to preach and found a monastery. For two centuries, the Assyrian mission thrived. Churches and monasteries were established in at least ten provinces. We know also that the mission suffered a temporary reversal of fortunes in the ninth century, when the Emperor Wu-tsung (d. 846) laicized all the native priests and monks in the kingdom. But there were still monasteries in China in the eleventh century, and around 1095 the Patriarch of the East, Sebaryeshu III, appointed a bishop to the see of Cathay (or Northern China). Even as late as the thirteenth century, when the Radiant Religion enjoyed the favor of the Mongol court of Kublai Khan (1215-1295), Chinese monasteries were still being built. And in 1280, Mark, the Chinese (Uighur) bishop of Cathay became the Syrian Patriarch of the East, under the name Yahbalaha III (d. 1317). How far the East Syrian missions reached we are never likely to know for certain. The "Thomas Christians" of India were East Syrian in theology, loyalty, and population from an early period, and in the eight and ninth centuries the new immigrants who swelled the numbers of the Malankara Christians of India were definitely East Syrian. As early as the sixth century, Cosmas Indicopleustes encountered East Syrian Christians on the remote island of Socotra in the Indian Ocean, and there are passing references in texts from later centuries to one or another bishop of Socotra. And East Syrian missions definitely penetrated into Tibet before the late eighth century. Some historians even believe there is sufficient textual and physical evidence to suggest that East Syrian Christians reached Sri Lanka, Java, Sumatra, Japan, Korea, Burma, Malaya, Vietnam, and Thailand. By the end of the middle ages, however, the Assyrian communion had been reduced to a shadow of its former magnificence. There had been some pressure upon the native sees from the time of the Islamic conquest of the Persian Empire, but East Syrian scholars and physicians had for centuries occupied a vital place in the Caliphate. But the greater Assyrian Christian world of Central and East Asia had remained intact and largely unperturbed into the fourteenth century. Of course, the Christians of Central Asia suffered terribly along with everyone else when the horde of Genghis Khan (c. 1150-1227) was destroying every village and city in its path. But the grandsons of Genghis--Möngke (1208-1259), Kublai (1215-1294), and Hulegu (1217-1265)--were for the most part well disposed towards the Assyrian communities. Hulegu even took a Christian wife. In the late thirteenth century, however, the great reversal began. In Baghdad, Ghazan Khan (r. 1295-1304) adopted Islam, and at once the East Syrian Christian community became the object of ferocious persecutions, including numerous massacres. Then, in 1369, the Ming Dynasty came to power in China and instituted a systematic extermination of foreign creeds. The Assyrian Church had soon disappeared. And in Central Asia the rampages of the Turkic Muslim warlord Timur (1336-1405) left no living traces of East Syrian Christianity in their wake. And yet, down the centuries the Church of the East has persisted: a small community, perennially persecuted in the place of its birth, and until very recently seemingly indomitable. Far away from there--in India, where it has had a home for centuries, and in North America, where it has had to find a new home in a dark time, and elsewhere--its scattered branches continue to bear fruit, not copiously, perhaps, but indefatigably. But in its homeland it is being pushed towards the edge of extinction. So it goes, I suppose. History is not at our command, and the future does not lie in our power; we must do what we can, but we can do only so much. And, in the end, all cultures rise and fall; none is eternal. Nevertheless, for anyone who knows the strange, glorious, and too often forgotten history of the Church of the East, it is difficult to view the current situation without a very special and very intense bitterness.
Revolution in Egypt? And Could Jordan Be Next?
Is Egypt about to erupt in a full-blown revolution that could lead to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak's regime? Might Jordan's government be next? One thing's for certain: No one predicted the demonstrations in Egypt would grow so big so fast. Momentum for the protests is growing. A Facebook page promoting the democracy protests grew from 20,000 members on Wednesday to 80,000 on Thursday. The government then reportedly shut down Facebook, and disrupted Internet service in parts of the country. Twitter has been blocked. Police are beating protesters. As of Friday, more than 1,000 Egyptians have been arrested for demonstrating. Now an overnight curfew has been imposed and the Egyptian army has been deployed to urban centers. One key factor fueling events: economics. Egyptians have been suffering double-digit inflation -- averaging between 10 percent and 14 percent -- and soaring food prices in recent years. Reports Reuters: "The Food and Agriculture Organization, a body of the United Nations, said on January 5 that food prices hit a 'record high' in December 2010, topping 2008 levels when riots shook Egypt as well as other countries." Most Egyptians are already dirt poor. Skyrocketing food prices are causing them to fear they may not be able to feed their families. This is creating a "perfect storm" of anger against the Mubarak regime -- it's corrupt, authoritarian, anti--human rights, and resistant to all positive economic and political reform. It's been bad for the 30 years Mubarak has been in power, since the assassination of Pres. Anwar Sadat, the bold reformer. But now Egyptians are being pushed over the brink. Calls for Mubarak to step down are growing. "Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog turned Egyptian reform campaigner, said he expected big demonstrations across Egypt on Friday, and that it was time for President Hosni Mubarak to go," reported Reuters. "ElBaradei, 68, left Vienna, where he lives, for Cairo on Thursday to join a growing wave of protests against Mubarak inspired by Tunisia's overthrow of their authoritarian president. He told Reuters he would not lead the street rallies, but that his role was 'to manage the change politically.'" On Friday, however, ElBaradei was placed under house arrest in Egypt. In my 2009 non-fiction book Inside The Revolution, I described Mubarak as a "classic Resister." While nominally a Sunni Muslim, he's not an Islamic radical. He's not a revolutionary of any kind. To the contrary, he doesn't want real change of any kind. He just wants to retain power, keep things stable, keep wealth and power for himself, and pass the keys to the kingdom on to his son Gamal. But such resistance to positive change is inflaming the "rank-and-file," everyday Egyptians who feel increasingly desperate and see others in the region (Tunisians, Iraqis, and the people of southern Sudan) changing their governments and having more of a say in affairs of state. Egyptians are yearning for something better, and now they've taken to the streets in hopes of getting it. Meanwhile, protests have mounted in recent days in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. There, too, economics is playing a critical role. Reports the AP: "The economy saw a record deficit of $2 billion this year, inflation rising … to 6.1 percent just last month and rampant unemployment and poverty -- estimated at 12 and 25 percent respectively. 'The government buys cars and spends lavishly on its parties and travel, while many Jordanians are jobless or can barely put food on their tables to feed their hungry children,' said civil servant Mahmoud Thiabat, 31, a father of three who earns $395 a month." In Egypt, I don't see the protests being driven initially or primarily by the Muslim Brotherhood (which started in Egypt in the 1920s) or by other radical Muslim groups, though the Islamists are certainly trying to take advantage. This would be a nightmare scenario we must pray never happens. We don't want this to be another Iranian Revolution where an Islamic-radical madman takes over. If Mubarak falls, we want to see a group of pro-democracy, pro-free market, serious reformers come to power. In Jordan, there is a very high risk that Islamic radicals would take over the regime. As I write in Inside The Revolution, "It is precisely because the Jordanians have made such progress [with positive political and economic reforms in the past two decades] that I am worried by the Radicals' determination to launch a jihad there, seize the capital, and create a new anti-Israel, anti-Western base for Iran and al Qaeda. Therefore, I often pray for Jordan's peace, prosperity and continued progress. I pray for King Abdullah's health and safety, and I pray that the Lord would grant him the wisdom to know how best to move forward in such challenging times." On top of all this, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terror movement has just toppled the government in Lebanon. Iran's leaders are convinced their so-called messiah known as the Twelfth Imam is coming to earth at any moment, and feverishly trying to build nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to help usher in a new messianic age and an Islamic caliphate. Unfortunately, the Obama administration doesn't get it. "Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Is she kidding? The Mubarak regime is not stable. It is an authoritarian, corrupt, anti--human rights, anti--free speech regime. The Egyptian people deserve better. They deserve freedom and democracy and free markets. Perhaps the greatest democracy in the world should be backing them.
Mubarak Hangs on to Power As Protests, Looting Convulse EgypT
Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- President Hosni Mubarak's efforts to redeem his 30-year rule did little to quell Egyptian discontent Saturday as tens of thousands of demonstrators again defied a curfew to demand change and a new fear of anarchy percolated. The world's attention fell on central Cairo where the Army was deployed to replace police forces that clashed brutally with demonstrators. But with many Cairo neighborhoods left without any security, Egyptians began to feel the sting of politics cutting into personal safety. Shops and businesses were looted and abandoned police stations stripped clean of their arsenals. In one area, residents set up barricades and handed out sticks and kitchen knives as defense measures. Another group of men armed themselves and planned to sit outside all night to guard their houses. "There have been no police officers on the streets since this morning," Cairo resident Sherief Abdelbaki said. "All the men are trying to protect the ladies, their wives and children." "We have all become vigilantes ... it's like the Wild West," he said. "Where is the security?" After days of silence, the embattled Mubarak acted swiftly Saturday. He fired his entire cabinet, then tapped two new leaders to stand by his side. Mubarak appointed his trusted and powerful intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, as his deputy, the first time the authoritarian regime has seen such a post. He also asked Ahmed Shafik, the civil aviation minister in the cabinet that just stepped down, to form a new government, state-run Nile TV reported. Shafik is a former Air Force officer with strong military connections. But Egyptians fed up with with what they see as Mubarak's hollow promises for reform were hardly appeased. In a fifth day of protests engulfing the Arab world's most populous nation, people took to the streets, chanting "Down with Mubarak" and burning pictures of the authoritarian leader. "There is very little in terms of real power that the president still has," CNN's Ben Wedeman said from Cairo. "The army is controlling the street, but politically there is a complete vacuum." Anti-government demonstrators have taken to the streets in Egypt since Tuesday. The protests come weeks after similar disturbances sparked a revolution in Tunisia, forcing then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee the country. Both Egypt and Tunisia have seen dramatic rises in the cost of living in recent years and accusations of corruption among the ruling elite. Tunisia-inspired demonstrations have also taken place in Algeria, Yemen and Jordan. Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, who returned home to Cairo to join the demonstrations and was placed under house arrest on Friday, said Saturday that he was disappointed in Mubarak's decision to stay put. "This is a change of personnel and we are talking about the change of a regime," ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, told Al-Jazeera television of Mubarak's government reshuffle. "The Egyptian people are saying one thing: President Hosni Mubarak must leave. We have to move towards a democratic state." The demonstrations Saturday in Cairo and other cities were boisterous but largely peaceful. One exception was near the cordoned-off Interior Ministry, where security forces clashed violently with demonstrators Saturday afternoon. At least one person was killed, Dr. Ragab Ali said at the Ebad Al-Rahman Clinic, a medical center near the Interior Ministry, though another doctor treating the wounded said at least five people had been shot to death. The clashes injured at least 60 people, Ali said. There was confusion about the human toll in the demonstrations thus far. At least 31 people were killed in Alexandria, Egypt, hospital authorities told CNN. Earlier, the state-run Nile TV earlier reported 38 people died. It was unclear whether the Alexandria deaths were part of that toll. Chaos reigned at Alexandria's short-staffed hospitals, where injured protesters were furious at doctors for not treating them quickly enough. At the Interior Ministry in Cairo, police surged forward, shooting live ammunition and burning tear gas as protesters rumbled towards the building, an Alamo of sorts for the police and an outpost that stood as a highly visible and potent symbol of state authority. Nearby, tension simmered in Tahrir Square, now littered with rocks, glass, garbage and other debris after five days of tumult. People picked up spent shotgun cartridges and tear gas canisters that said "Made in the U.S.A." They called Mubarak a puppet of America. The powerful Egyptian army, deployed to the streets for the first time since the mid-1980s, is much more respected than the police, and many protesters embraced their presence. But whether the 450,000-strong armed forces will remain loyal to Mubarak is key for the nation's future. The military issued a stern warning to the people on Saturday: "Stop the looting, chaos and the things that hurt Egypt. Protect the nation, protect Egypt, protect yourselves," the military said, according to Nile TV. Suleiman's appointment as vice president was seen widely as an another attempt to restore order. "His loyalty to Mubarak seems rock solid," a former U.S. ambassador said in a classified U.S. diplomatic cable leaked to the website WikiLeaks. Marco Vicenzino, director of the Washington-based research organization Global Strategy Project, said Mubarak's focus now is on preserving order. "And the person who can do that, obviously, is Omar Suleiman," Vicenzino said. Suleiman has also long been seen as a possible successor to Mubarak, and tapping him as a deputy at this critical juncture might allow Mubarak to make a graceful exit, Vicenzino said. Meanwhile, Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Sami Annan huddled with five deputies after returning home early from high-level talks at the Pentagon to address the crisis at hand, a senior Egyptian military official told CNN. U.S. President Barack Obama convened an hourlong meeting on the Egypt crisis on Saturday that included Vice President Joe Biden, National Security Advisor Tom Donilon and other top officials, the White House said. British Prime Minister David Cameron spoke to Mubarak on Saturday, according to a statement from his office. Cameron released a joint statement on Egypt with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel calling on Mubarak to bring about a "process of transformation" and to hold "free and fair elections." "It is essential that the further political, economic and social reforms President Mubarak has promised are implemented fully and quickly and meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people," the statement said. "The Egyptian people have legitimate grievances and a longing for a just and better future." Mubarak imposed another nighttime curfew from 4 p.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez, the cities where the largest protests have unfolded. A previous curfew had been in place nationwide Friday night into Saturday morning but it failed to keep people off the streets. The consequences of the unrest started surfacing Saturday as Egypt's Central Bank announced the closure of all banks as well as the stock market on Sunday, state-run television reported. And midyear university examinations were postponed. The Egyptian crisis reverberated across the world, with stocks plunging on news of unrest and airlines cancelling flights. That followed a brutal crackdown Friday when thousands of riot and plainclothes police clashed violently with the protesters, firing water cannons, rubber bullets and tear gas with force and impunity. Undeterred, people ran, screamed, hurled rocks and accosted walls of security as they tried to make their way to central Cairo. In coastal Alexandria on Saturday, at least 2,000 protesters gathered in Raml Square. There was no sign of police, and protests appeared peaceful. But in that city, too, anxiety over looting and a lack of security ran high and by nightfall, sounds of gunfire pierced the air. Cellular service appeared to have been restored in Egypt Saturday morning. Text messaging is one of the most common modes of communication for Egyptians and was cut off amid calls for intensified dissent. Mubarak, 82, who has not been seen in public for some time, addressed the nation in a televised speech early Saturday. He said he asked his government to step down but he intended to stay in power. "I asked the government to resign today and I will commission a new government to take over tomorrow," Mubarak said shortly after midnight. The aging president has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for three decades and it was widely believed he was grooming his son, Gamal, as his successor, a plan now complicated by demands for democracy. Mubarak said, "These protests arose to express a legitimate demand for more democracy, need for a greater social safety net, and the improvement of living standards, fighting poverty and rampant corruption. "I understand these legitimate demands of the people and I truly understand the depth of their worries and burdens, and I will not part from them ever and I will work for them every day," he said. "But regardless of what problems we face, this does not justify violence or lawlessness." As Mubarak spoke overnight, protesters burned police stations in Cairo and Alexandria, and overturned and torched police vehicles. People gathered, expecting an announcement of Mubarak's resignation. When that did not happen, a celebratory mood quickly turned back into anger. Protesters ransacked the headquarters of the ruling National Democratic Party and set it afire. Saturday afternoon, thousands of chanting demonstrators filed past the smoldering building. As they approached the state-run television building, soldiers linked arms, forming a human chain to hold back the protesters. The crowd stopped respectfully in front of the troops, and continued chanting "Down, down, Hosni Mubarak" and "the people want to bring down the regime."
Lebanon's Political Crisis Turns Beirut Into a Ghost TowN
Beirut -- The normally bustling streets and neighbourhoods of Lebanon are beginning to mirror the paralysis that has beset the country's politics after the collapse of Lebanon's government. "Our sales were down 90 per cent in the past month," said Youssef Ibrahim, 26, the branch manager at Città Resto Café, an up-market eatery in Beirut's rebuilt central area. The city centre, with its planned streets and widespread cafes and restaurants, is a major draw for tourists who make up almost all of Mr Ibrahim's customers. But, given its proximity to the parliament building and other government offices, the centre of Beirut is now more like a ghost town marked by roadblocks, armed patrols and closed-off streets. "This area is very sensitive," Mr Ibrahim said. "If anything political happens in Lebanon, [the centre] is the first place to react." Political tensions began to mount months ago over the issue of a United Nations-backed tribunal expected to charge members of Hizbollah with involvement in the 2005 assassination of the prime minister, Rafiq Hariri. Hizbollah, which denies any links to the killing, together with its allies walked out of the previous government when then prime minister Saad Hariri - the son of Rafiq - refused to denounce the tribunal. Security was beefed up considerably after the government's collapse on January 12 sparked riots during protests against the naming of a Hizbollah-backed prime minster, Najib Miqati. Politically sensitive areas, such as the neighbourhoods where major Lebanese leaders live, are all but shut down. Security has been strengthened in areas inhabited by people of different faiths, where tension is running high. Tanks are stationed in areas such as Aaycha Bakkar in west Beirut and Cola to the south of the city, which are often the sites of sectarian clashes. Earlier this week, Sunnis angry at the nomination of Mr Miqati stormed Cola, an important transportation hub, blocking roads with burning tyres and rubbish skips as they battled the army for hours. This weekend, a calm had returned to Cola. Taxis and minibuses dropped off and picked up people. But the hubbub was at a fraction of what it normally is. "People are afraid and wary of this area after all the problems and after what they saw on TV," said Sami Banna, 29, an optometrist from the Cola area. "There have been economic changes. There are no people shopping around this area. Normally it's busy but after this problem with the army and government took place, the area is in shock." Mr Miqati, the prime minister-designate, wrapped up two days of consultations with all of Lebanon's political blocs on Friday and met the president, Michel Suleiman, yesterday to discuss forming a government. Residents of Beirut are accustomed to the restrictions on movement and lockdowns of sensitive areas associated with the ebb and flow of security this country has endured for decades. The architecture of crisis - roadblocks, check points, cinder block barricades - can appear and disappear rapidly according to the political situation. But analysts say that regardless of whether a government is formed, tensions are linked to larger grievances and they will remain. "Even if the government is formed, I don't think security measures will be removed," said Sahar Atrache, a Beirut-based analyst with the International Crisis Group. "The security is unstable and it could be destabilised further at any moment." Even if Mr Miqati does manage to form a unity government and thereby returning stability to Lebanon's streets, there is another bump in the road ahead - if the tribunal indicts Hizbollah members as expected, it is certain to renew tensions. "People will return to a normal life," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. "But we are bracing ourselves for the press conference of the tribunal which will take place on February 7. I think there will be turbulence in the country."
Iraq Water Shortages Raising Ethnic Tensions
KIRKUK, Iraq (AFP) -- A worsening water shortage in Iraq is raising tensions in the multi-ethnic Kirkuk province, where Arab farmers accuse the Kurdistan region of ruining them by closing the valves to a dam in winter. "We are harmed by the Kurds, and the officials responsible for Baghdad and Kirkuk will not lift a finger," said Sheikh Khaled al-Mafraji, a leader of the Arab Political Council that groups mainly Sunni tribal leaders. At the heart of the conflict is the Dukan dam, built in 1955 in Iraq's northern autonomous region of Kurdistan, 75 kilometres (50 miles) northeast of Kirkuk province. "They release too much water from June to September while from October it is the opposite: there is not enough drinking water and even less to irrigate our lands," Mafraji complained. Kirkuk province with its rich oil reserves has 250,000 hectares (617,740 acres) of arable land and 16 percent of its workforce engaged in agriculture, according to UN figures. Winter crops include wheat and corn, and summer harvests are mainly sesame, tomatoes and watermelon. A UN factsheet in October 2010 showed that while more rain fell in 2009 compared with 2008, the situation is still critical. Rainfall is now 50 percent below average. "The central government must intervene immediately to ask that our brothers in the north (Kurds) provide the necessary amounts of water for irrigation," Mafraji said, threatening to hold demonstrations if his voice was not heard. Out of Kirkuk's estimated 900,000 inhabitants, some 31 percent live in rural areas, UN data shows. They represent all of Iraq's faiths, and are ethnic Arabs, Turkmen or Kurds. Largely because of its oil riches, Kirkuk is at the centre of a tussle between Iraq's central government and authorities in Kurdistan, who want to add it to their own region, currently made up of three provinces. "Our suffering began in 2005, when the peasants were forced to set aside one-third of their land and cultivate only small patches near the artesian well" where there was water, said Abdul Rahman al-Obeidi, who owns 450 hectares west of Kirkuk. "The peasants claimed that they (the Kurds) cut off water supplies to force them to leave the area. They do not understand there is a shortage and believe it is a political conflict," he added. For him, it "is the lack of coordination between the authorities in Baghdad and Sulaimaniyah (the province in which the Dukan dam lies) which fuels the notion that the Kurds are responsible." The growing water deficit and dams built by Iraq's neighbours have significantly reduced the water flow in a country that was until the late 1950s a breadbasket of the Arab world. "The dam holds 1.3 million cubic metres of water," said Shihab Hakim Nader, director of water resources in Kirkuk province. "There is a strategic reserve of 700,000 cubic metres (which must not be used), which means there remains 600,000 cubic metres that can be used. But the rain is becoming more scarce, and the level of the dam is decreasing." "Also, the Kirkuk area receives only 30 cubic metres per second of water, when it should be receiving 75. This is only sufficient for drinking water," he added. The issue is a ticking bomb in a province with strong ethnic loyalties, where Arabs accuse Kurds of intentionally harming the province. "The water issue is critical, and thousands of people driven to unemployment blame their situation on Kurdistan," said Sheikh Burhan Mezher, the head of Kirkuk's agriculture department. According to Tahseen Kader, a former minister of water resources for the Kurdistan region's government, the closure of Dukan's gates is routine and not a matter for concern. "Every year, even during the time of the old regime (of Saddam Hussein who was ousted in 2003) we used to close the dam gates during the winter," he said. Kader said that was done "to conserve water for agriculture in the late spring, and for the production of electricity," and claimed the notion that political motives had driven the dam closure was absurd. "The majority of the inhabitants of the province of Kirkuk are Kurdish, so why would we harm them? We don't want to harm anyone," he said.
Iraq Refugee Returns Fell in 2010: UNHCR
BAGHDAD (AFP) -- Fewer Iraqis displaced inside and outside the country returned to their homes in 2010 than in the previous year, largely as a result of Iraq's prolonged political deadlock, the UNHCR said on Friday. The UN refugee agency said in its December 2010 statistical update that a total of 118,890 Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons returned to their country and homes, a 40 percent drop compared with 2009. "It was a year on hold," Daniel Endres, Iraq representative for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, told AFP by telephone. "People wanted to wait and see a bit -- before you take such an important decision, you want to be sure" that the situation in the country is stable, he added. According to UNHCR figures, the number of Iraqis returning to their home country peaked in March, with a total of 17,080 returns in the same month Iraq held its second parliamentary polls since dictator Saddam Hussein was ousted. No other month saw more than 12,000 returns, with total figures declining monthly from August until December, which registered just 6,640 returns. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki finally ended the protracted political stalemate that followed the elections by forming a national unity government on December 21. But Endres said it was still too soon to tell whether the formation of a new government had an impact on the number of Iraqis returning home. "We cannot say that yet, but an inclusive government could be a reason for them (refugees and internally displaced persons) to come back," he said. He noted that, according to UNHCR surveys conducted with Iraqi refugees overseas, political instability was the main reason they did not want to return to Iraq, followed by a lack of basic services and tenuous security. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres, said during a visit to Baghdad on Monday that unemployment and socio-economic problems were the biggest barriers for Iraqi refugees who wanted to return home. "More important for many of the people we talked to than the security concerns that still exist is this lack of (economic) opportunities," he said during a news conference in the Iraqi capital. According to the UNHCR figures, half of the total returns in 2010 were recorded in Baghdad province, while around a third were in the restive ethnically mixed central province of Diyala. A total of 26,410 Iraqis, meanwhile, left the country to go into exile last year, including 10,925 to Syria, 6,285 to Iran and 3,480 to Jordan. Among those who left in large numbers were Iraqi Christians, seeking to flee violence that has targeted them in recent months, most notably in the siege of a Baghdad church on October 31 that left 42 worshippers and two priests dead. The International Organisation for Migration said in mid-December that it recorded 894 Christian families leaving their homes in Baghdad and Mosul to go to majority-Christian localities in north Iraq, in particular the autonomous Kurdish region which is more secure than the rest of the country. The UN refugee agency said on Monday it estimated there were around 1.3 million internally displaced persons in Iraq, including 500,000 living in "extremely precarious conditions." While the UNHCR currently does not give figures on the number of Iraqi refugees abroad, it said in 2008 that it estimated around two million people had left the country, principally to neighbouring Syria and Jordan. Around 196,000 Iraqis are currently registered with the agency in those two countries and Lebanon.
Iraq Quietly Rows Back on Lofty Oil PlanS
BAGHDAD (UPI) -- Iraqi officials are quietly backpedaling on Baghdad's plan to boost oil production to as much as 12 million barrels per day in six years to a more modest 8 million bpd. This is largely because the country's oil industry infrastructure is so dilapidated after decades of war, insurgency, international sanctions and neglect that it cannot support such an ambitious project. The country's 4,500-mile pipeline network, a vital element in exporting oil, is barely able to handle current production levels. The Oil Ministry says that reached 2.7 million barrels per day in December. That's a modest increase but underlines the upward curve in production after foreign companies took over major fields in 2010. Indeed, that figure is the highest monthly output total since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. However, it's below the 3 million bpd the country produced in the late 1980s after an eight-year war with Iran. Still, with the advanced drilling and production techniques foreign companies are using in Iraq, it isn't surprising that output should already be climbing. Most of the increase came from the giant Rumaila and Zubair fields in southern Iraq that are now operated by BP and Italy's ENI respectively under 20-year production contracts awarded in December 2009. Some industry analysts estimate Iraq will be able to boost production to nearly 3 million bpd by the end of 2011 and hit 4.5 million by 2015, largely due to greater output from the major fields that have been underproducing for years. But few see the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose actions in the next few years will be crucial to pushing Iraqi production to the limit, achieving the target of 12 million bpd by 2017 to challenge Saudi Arabia as the world's leading producer. Indeed, Thamir al-Ghadban, one of al-Maliki's senior advisers, was quoted as saying that 8 million bpd was a far more realistic production figure by 2017. Other Iraqi officials have echoed Ghadban's estimate while Western analysts say it is a far more realistic figure than the target of 12 million bpd that has been the Oil Ministry's mantra for a year or more. There may be political factors involved here, such as allaying concerns in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Increasing production to 12 million bpd would dramatically reshape the global oil market and thrust Iraq on a collision course with OPEC, the 12-member cartel it helped to found in Baghdad in September 1960. An Iraqi production hike of such proportions would represent a threat to the cartel's efforts to control oil prices. There may also be connections with Maliki's success in forming a coalition government after nine months of tortuous horse-trading following an inconclusive parliamentary election in March 2010. Now that he has to focus on the nitty-gritty of governing a country beset with sectarian rivalries, political and economic uncertainties and foreign policy problems, he may have concluded that grandiose objectives are no longer necessary. Iraq's recoverable oil reserves are pegged at 143.1 billion barrels, the world's fourth largest proven reserves of conventional crude after Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran. In November, the International Energy Agency poured cold water on Iraq's plans to boost production to 12 million bpd by 2017, saying it could take 20 years just to reach half that. The only countries that have been able to pull off the kind of feat Iraq seeks to achieve are Russia and Saudi Arabia, which during the 1960s pushed through the 10 million bpd barrier. Upgrading Iraq's infrastructure will be an immense task and could cost as much as $150 billion, the IEA noted. "Basic infrastructure, including roads, bridges, airports and water supply are all in need of repair and expansion," it observed. "A major expansion of shipping ports will also be needed." The situation is so parlous that one Western diplomat observed recently, "In some cases, the only thing holding the pipelines together is the sludge in them." Baghdad has started implementing a $50 billion modernization plan. This aims to extend its pipeline network and triple export capacity to around 160,000 barrels a day, as well as building four more refineries. Iraq currently has eight refineries with a combined capacity of 659,000 bpd. The new facilities will boost that by around 750,000 bpd.
High Stakes and Hopes for Egypt's Christians in Historic ProtestS
Cairo -- As clashes between anti-government protesters and Egyptian police intensified on Jan. 28, some Coptic Orthodox Christians disregarded their church's call for peaceful non-involvement -- in hopes that the possible abdication of President Hosni Mubarak could advance the cause of their freedom. Professor Emad Shahin, a political scientist at the University of Notre Dame, specializes in Islamic affairs and has been monitoring the Egyptian situation closely. He told CNA that many Coptic Christians were joining with Muslims to express their frustration with three decades of authoritarian rule. "The different statements that called for today's demonstrations were calling on participants to come 'from the mosques and the churches,' to go to public squares," Professor Shahin explained. "We have seen evidence that some Copts have been participating in the demonstrations." The protesters, he said, "need an end to corruption. They need the rule of law. They call for freedoms, and dignity -- for social justice, and of course, for democracy." Officially, however, "the Egyptian Church is taking a separate side -- it's not really participating, or encouraging its members to participate in the events." The unprecedented protests have brought hundreds of thousands of Egyptians into the streets since Jan. 25, prompting President Mubarak to deploy security forces and shut down the means of communication -- including internet access, text messaging and phone service -- within the country. At least 26 people have already been reported dead, although some government troops have allegedly refused to act against protesters. As of Jan. 28, the president was holding his ground, while acknowledging a number of economic and political grievances and demanding the resignation of his cabinet. "This is an uprising calling for profound changes," Shahin said. "It has narrowed down the options for the Egyptian regime: either change, or leave." Professor Shahin mentioned a number of statements coming from officials of the Coptic Church --including its leader, Pope Shenouda III -- asking Copts not to participate in the demonstrations. They were urged, instead, to attend church services and pray for the peace and the well-being of their country. But for many Coptic Christians, the prospect of a future without Mubarak -- notwithstanding the uncertainty about who would replace him -- held more appeal than the Coptic Pope's call for restraint. "If President Mubarak is removed, and these uprisings lead to the establishment of a true democratic system, then I think everyone will benefit," Shahin stated. "It would ensure a fair representation of the Copts within the political structures and the state." "But we're still really far from being there," he acknowledged. Egyptian Christians want their rights and legal status to be handled by what Shahin called "real governing institutions" -- the judiciary and legislature -- instead of the frequently brutal and corrupt state security apparatus. They want the right to build new churches, and an end to discriminatory policies that leave them socially, politically, and economically marginalized. Shahin believes most Egyptians want to grant these rights to the Coptic Christians. President Mubarak, however, has not been inclined to do so. "Mubarak doesn't want to appear weak -- because Pope Shenouda is a very strong and highly political figure. He doesn't want to give any concession to him. He's been at war with the Islamists, including the Muslim Brotherhood, so he doesn't want to appear -- in front of a majority Muslim population -- as giving concessions to Copts, while cracking down on Islamists." It's not clear whether the protesters can achieve their goal of ousting Mubarak, or how they will move forward if they succeed. "It's difficult to anticipate where this is going," Shahin reflected. "It all depends on the public, and how steadfast they will be in continuing with the protests and demonstrations." The two most likely outcomes, Shahin predicted, were "someone from the military taking power -- either directly or indirectly -- or a transitional unity government." "In terms of names," he said, "I can think of 10 or 15 people who can successfully head a transitional government -- one that would prepare the groundwork for a true and meaningful change, and a democratic transition."
Fate of Coptic Christians in Post-Mubarak Egypt Worries SomE
Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton warns Egypt's ancient Coptic Christian minority could become increasingly endangered should the protests against Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak drive him from power. The rioting against the Mubarak regime began on Jan. 25, in the wake of the Jan. 15 overthrow of Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, with the publicly stated goals of ousting Mubarak from power and protesting Egypt's high unemployment and rampant corruption, among other issues. The rioting claimed the ruling party headquarters Friday and pushed the Mubarak regime to shut down Internet and cell phone communications in an effort to clamp down on opponents, and the regime sent the army into the streets Saturday to confront demonstrators as Cairo fell into near anarchy. Bolton points out Egypt's outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, which promotes the Islamist ideology employed more violently by Hamas and other terror groups, stands to gain despite being a late comer to the revolt. "One thing I want to say about all of these young people and all of these university students is what they're learning in the universities is very similar to what the Muslim Brotherhood preaches," Bolton said. "So we have to worry about the radicalism among the students is very, very high." Consequently, conservatives are mistaken thinking anti-Mubarak forces will replace the current regime with a Western-style democracy because Mubarak represents the lesser of two evils when compared with the opposition, according to Bolton. "The overthrow of the Mubarak regime will not by any sense of the imagination lead to the advent of Jeffersonian democracy," Bolton said. "The greater likelihood is a radical, tightly knit organization like the Muslim Brotherhood will take advantage of the chaos and seize power. "It is really legitimate for the Copts to be worried that instability follow Mubarak's fall and his replacement with the Muslim Brotherhood." The Copts, who constitute between 10 and 20 percent of Egypt's population and whose church traces its founding back to St. Mark the Evangelist, have been increasingly targeted by Islamic extremists in recent years and have suffered intense persecution. Copts complain Muslims are able to get away murdering them with impunity much like whites did in the South under Jim Crow, and the government discriminates against them by placing restrictions on the building and repair of churches while not imposing a similar rule on mosques. "The Coptic problem is that of pressure on a minority, intolerance towards others and a lack of acceptance of pluralism. The more Egypt is influenced by the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, the worse it is for the Copts, " Tarek Heggy, a leading Coptic intellectual, told the Italian press agency ADNKronos International last November while speaking about the Muslim Brotherhood's relationship with the Copts. Their plight became painfully apparent to the world after an al-Qaida affiliate bombed of a Coptic church in Alexandria, killing 20 worshippers and wounding 100 others. But this terror attack has been one of several carried out by Muslim extremists to hit the Coptic community over the past decade. Although the Brotherhood condemned the New Year's Eve attack, many Copts, particularly outside Egypt, worry their situation could grow worse should Mubarak fall. "The Copts I know are scared," said Amir Makkar, a Copt who lives near Lancaster, Pa. "It's a dangerous proposal with what is happening in Egypt because the problem is there is a lot of uncertainty and it is impossible to tell what is going to happen amid the chaos situation because anything could happen." Makkar, who pays close attention to the happenings in his homeland, believes Egypt could have a chance for democracy if someone like Mohammed ElBaradei replaces Mubarak. But Copts fear the possibility the Brotherhood could use its strong organization to fill a power vacuum left by Mubarak. There would be a lot for the Copts to worry about should the Brotherhood come to power because they likely would establish Islamic state that would impose a harsh interpretation of Islamic law on non-Muslims, as has happened in other Muslim nations in the region, Makkar said. Pope Shenouda III, the head of the Coptic Orthodox Church, and other church representatives have called on Copts to refrain from participating, but evidence shows many Copts have ignored their church and have joined the revolt. Washington Institute scholar Dina Guirgis, herself a Copt and an observer of Egyptian politics, cautions against jumping to alarmist conclusions about what could happen to the Copts should the Mubarak regime collapse. Guirgis believes although the Muslim Brotherhood likely would play a part in a post-Mubarak government, it would not be the driving force. "It would probably be some sort of national unity government comprised of various political forces, but all within the rules of a democratic regime, which the Muslim Brotherhood would have to subscribe to as well," Guirgis said. "I don't think we need to exaggerate fears of the transition from the Mubarak regime, especially because conditions were very poor for the Copts under the Mubarak regime, so it's not as though things were rosy." Muslims and Christians will need to work side by side for Egypt's future to put the three decades of the Mubarak regime behind them, according to Guirgis. "People should not fear and not exaggerate," she said. The Copts have a chance to participate in a democratic government should one emerge because the anti-Mubarak movement is diverse and "largely secular," according to Guirgis. But Bolton counters that the experience in other majority Muslim countries where militant Islamic groups have come to power shows the Copts need to be concerned. "Whatever you want to say about the military government for 60 years is it's been secular," Bolton said. "It's a Muslim government, but it doesn't operate under the tenet of sharia legal tenets that the Brotherhood would impose on Egypt."
Egypt Cracks Down on Mass ProtestS
Cairo, Egypt (CNN) -- As darkness fell Friday, thousands of angry Egyptians defied a government curfew and stinging police tear gas to march on the streets demanding change. The United States appealed for restraint, but Friday evening the sounds of what seemed to be gunfire rang out near a Cairo police station on which protesters had converged. The government cracked down throughout the day with thousands of riot and plain-clothes police and the force of the army in armored personnel carriers equipped with gun turrets. Undeterred, people ran, screamed, hurled rocks and accosted walls of security as they tried to make their way to central Cairo. Embattled President Hosni Mubarak imposed a nationwide curfew from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. State-run Nile TV said the curfew was in response to the "hooliganism and lawlessness" of the protesters. Vans packed with riot police circled Cairo neighborhoods before the start of weekly prayers in the afternoon. Later in the day, Egyptian soldiers moved onto the streets, the first time the army has been deployed to quell unrest since 1985. But protesters, fed up with economic woes and a lack of freedoms, defied all warnings to demand an end to Mubarak's authoritarian 30-year-rule. They chanted "God is Great" and the dictator must go. "Down, Down, Mubarak," they shouted. Plumes of rancid, thick smoke billowed over the Nile River as, by day's close, chaos reigned in the bustling metropolis. Fires could be seen in front of the Egyptian ruling party's headquarters. Police fired tear gas with force and impunity. A tourist on the balcony of his 18th floor hotel room told CNN he had to run in and wash his eyes and face from the stinging gas. Police confiscated cameras from people, including guests at the Hilton Hotel. As the government cracked down on protesters across Egypt, opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, who returned home to Cairo to join the demonstrations, was placed under house arrest, a high-level security source told CNN. ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and former head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency, was warned earlier not to leave a mosque near downtown Cairo where he was attending Friday prayers. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the Egyptian crisis Friday, urging all parties to be peaceful and engage in dialog. "We are deeply concerned about the use of violence by Egyptian police and security forces against protesters and we call on the Egyptian government to do everything within its power to restrain its security forces," Clinton said. "At the same time, protesters should also refrain from violence and express themselves peacefully." She said the protests underscored "deep grievances within Egyptian society and the Egyptian government needs to understand that violence will not make these grievances go away." Unprecedented demonstrations erupted all over Egypt, the most populous nation in the Arab world and often a barometer for sentiment on the Arab community. In the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria, at least 1,000 protesters gathered and youths hurled rocks through black clouds of gas. Crowds ran through the streets toward the city's central square. There was no indication of a curfew in that city either, as people remained out well after the time it was to begin. Further south in Suez, 15,000 riot police were out, using tear gas to disperse crowds, Nile TV said. Riot police also confronted protesters in the cities and towns of Ismailia, Fayoum and Shbin Elkoum, according to the anti-government group Egyptian Liberation. In Jordan, meanwhile, about 1,500 protesters amassed in downtown Amman and hundreds of others turned out in other cities, witnesses said. Egypt's Interior Ministry forbade protests Friday, but some Egyptians went door to door in Cairo, urging their neighbors to participate. The main opposition bloc, the Muslim Brotherhood, urged its supporters for the first time to take to the streets. A Facebook page devoted to the demonstrations accrued more than 80,000 followers as of Thursday afternoon, compared with 20,000 the previous day. But hours ahead of the protests, the internet went dark in parts of the country. Some text messaging and cell phone services appeared to be blocked. Servers of Egypt's main internet provider were down early Friday, according to multiple services that check whether servers used by specific sites are active. Servers for the Egyptian government's sites and for the U.S. Embassy in Cairo also appeared to be down. "We are closely monitoring the situation and are aware that communication services, including social media, are being blocked," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Thursday. "We continue to urge Egyptian authorities to show restraint and allow peaceful protests to occur." Even though it was difficult to use Twitter and Facebook within Egypt, thousands of others outside the country ran with the powerful social media tool to provide a real-time chronology of events. "Mubarak" was a trending topic. Authorities arrested a prominent Muslim Brotherhood leader early Friday, detaining the party's main speaker, Issam al-Aryan, according to a relative. Police came to al-Aryan's Cairo home at 2:30 a.m. local time, his son-in-law said. Other government critics voiced their opinions -- amazingly -- on state-run television. A popular morning show on state-run Nile TV included comments from guests calling for the resignation of government officials and increased dialogue between authorities and arrested protesters. The network carried coverage of the protests, even at times calling them large and peaceful. They followed days of unrest that have roiled several Arab countries. Demonstrations in Tunisia led the president to flee that North African nation. Then came protests in Algeria, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan. Essentially they are pro-democracy protests by people who are increasingly frustrated with the accumulating wealth of the elites in their respective countries, while a majority of the citizenry faces bleak economic prospects. "They all want the same," said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the Middle East. "They're all protesting about growing inequalities, they're all protesting against growing nepotism. The top of the pyramid was getting richer and richer." People are also fed up with authoritarian regimes that do not afford the people proper representation. "Fundamentally it's a question of dignity. People's dignity has been under assault for decades," Hokayem said. Opposition leader ElBaradei said Thursday that people have taken to the streets because they "realize the regime is not listening, not acting." "The barrier of fear is broken," he said. "And it will not come back." He called for demonstrations to be peaceful and for Mubarak's government to stop detaining and torturing people. He said that a violent response from the government is "counterproductive" and that the regime should promote democracy and social justice. "I am asking the regime to listen to the people before it is too late," the opposition leader said. Mubarak has not been seen in public for some time. He is 82 and there has been speculation of failing health. Many Egyptians believe Mubarak is grooming his son, Gamal, as his successor, a plan that could be complicated by demands for democracy. At least six people have died in the demonstrations so far, according to Egypt's Interior Ministry. Four French journalists were arrested in Cairo but were later released, according to the French newspaper Le Figaro. And a CNN crew covering the clashes in Cairo felt the wrath of the police. CNN's Ben Wedeman and Mary Rogers were under an overpass and behind a column as police tried to hold back protesters. Plainclothes police wielding clubs surrounded the CNN team and wanted "to haul us off," Wedeman said. In a struggle, police grabbed Rogers's camera, cracked its viewfinder, and confiscated it. Wedeman said the police threatened to beat them.
Divided Christians Must Support One Another in Suffering, Pope SayS
VATICAN CITY -- When one Christian community is suffering, other Christians must offer assistance, Pope Benedict XVI told Coptic Orthodox and other Oriental Orthodox church leaders. The pope met Jan. 28 with members of the Catholic-Oriental Orthodox theological dialogue who were holding their annual meeting in Rome; the 2011 meeting came less than a month after a bomb attack on a Coptic Orthodox church in Alexandria, Egypt, left 23 people dead. "Many of you come from regions where Christian individuals and communities face trials and difficulties that are a cause of deep concern for us all," the pope told representatives of the Catholic, Armenian Apostolic, Coptic Orthodox, Ethiopian Orthodox, Syrian Orthodox, Malankara Orthodox Syrian and Eritrean Orthodox churches. "All Christians need to work together in mutual acceptance and trust in order to serve the cause of peace and justice," he said, adding a prayer that the example of the martyrs of both churches would give Christians strength and courage in the face of adversity. Coptic Orthodox Metropolitan Bishoy of Damiette, Egypt, the co-chairman of the dialogue, thanked Pope Benedict for his prayers for the dead and the injured. The Coptic leader also praised Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's commitment to protecting Egyptian Christians and he told the pope that hundreds of Muslims came out Jan. 7 -- when Copts celebrated Christmas -- to show their support for their Christian neighbors. The Egyptian government and a leading group of Muslim scholars objected to some of Pope Benedict's comments on the Coptic church bombing, saying they gave the impression that the government does not guarantee the freedom and safety of Egyptian Christians. Paulist Father Ron Roberson, an official at the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and member of the dialogue commission, said everyone involved in the dialogue was anxious to know how Egyptian Christians were faring, but the situation was not a primary focus on the meeting. The Catholic-Oriental Orthodox commission's theological dialogue concentrated on "the communion and communication" that existed among different communities in the first five centuries of Christianity. The Oriental Orthodox churches trace their origins to the Christian communities that did not accept the wording of the Council of Chalcedon's definition in 451 that Christ was fully human and fully divine. Between 1971 and 1996, the Catholic Church and the individual Oriental Orthodox churches resolved their differences over the Chalcedon statement. In looking at how the churches maintained unity until 451 despite linguistic, cultural and liturgical differences, the dialogue aims at offering suggestions for how future unity could be achieved without requiring total uniformity. Pope Benedict told the dialogue participants, "We can only be grateful that after almost 1,500 years of separation, we still find agreement about the sacramental nature of the church, about apostolic succession in priestly service and about the impelling need to bear witness to the Gospel of our lord and savior Jesus Christ in the world."
Deaths and Injuries Mount in Cairo and SueZ
(BBC) -- At least 18 people have been killed in violent protests in Egypt on Friday, medical sources say. Unconfirmed reports say up to 1,100 have been injured in clashes in Cairo and Suez. The speaker of parliament said an "important matter" would be announced shortly on state TV. President Hosni Mubarak has yet to make an address. The four days of street protests are posing the greatest challenge to his authority of his 31-year rule. Tens of thousands took part in protests in Cairo, Suez, Alexandria and other cities in protest at high unemployment, corruption, and government repression. The authorities announced a curfew from 1800 to 0700 local time (1600-0500 GMT) which was immediately and widely flouted. The headquarters of the governing NDP party has been set ablaze, while protesters also besieged the state broadcaster and the foreign ministry. Internet and phone services - both mobile and landline - have been severely disrupted, although protesters are using proxies to work around the restrictions.
Christian Communities Could Disappear From the Middle East, Warns PACE
Christian communities could disappear from the Middle East, where Christianity had its beginnings, if low birth rates and emigration -- fuelled in some places by discrimination and persecution -- are not properly addressed, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has warned. In a recommendation adopted today, based on a report by Luca Volontè (Italy, EPP/CD), the Assembly unequivocally condemned the October 2010 massacre of worshippers in the Syriac Catholic cathedral in Baghdad and the January 2011 suicide bombing in a Coptic church in Alexandria as two "particularly tragic" events in a growing number of attacks on Christian communities worldwide. The parliamentarians said the co-existence of religious groups was a sign of pluralism and an environment favourable to the development of democracy and human rights: "The Assembly is convinced that the loss of Christian communities in the Middle East would also endanger Islam as it would signal the victory of fundamentalism." Relations between Christian communities in the Middle East and the Muslim majorities "have not always been easy", the Assembly said, while public authorities in some Muslim countries "have not always conveyed the right signals" about other religious communities in these countries. The Assembly called for a Council of Europe strategy to enforce "freedom of religion" -- including the freedom to change one's religion -- as a human right. Member states should also promote educational material which addressed anti-Christian stereotypes and bias as well as "Christianophobia" in general. They should also insist on a "democracy clause" when making agreements with third countries, and take account of the situation of Christian and other religious communities in their bilateral political dialogue with these countries. The Parliamentary Assembly brings together 318 members from the national parliaments of the 47 member states.
Arab Peoples' Demands Need Be Heard, Says Turkish MinisteR
Istanbul (DPA) -- Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the demands of citizens throughout the Middle East for democratic freedoms need to be addressed, the semi-official Anatolia Agency reported Friday. 'With the spread of communication, societies' rightful demands for democratic freedom, good governance, transparency and the fight against corruption are intensifying,' Davutoglu said at a press conference in Istanbul before departing for Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina. 'These demands are justified and cannot be ignored in contemporary societies,' he added. 'What's important is for these demands to be addressed in the political arena and without leading to interference in these countries' political course overall,' Davutoglu said. While Davutoglu did not comment specifically on protests currently taking place in Egypt against the government, he mentioned the recent overthrow of the government of Tunisia and political upheaval in Lebanon, saying Turkey is closely watching developments in the region. Turkey has taken an increasingly active foreign policy role towards Arab countries. Davutoglu participated in recent negotiations in Lebanon to help solve the country's political crisis and said Friday that Turkey might also send a delegation to Tunisia.
AA Sputnik Moment?
Democrats should be careful when they invoke Sputnik. Their party's response to the Soviet Union's achievement may have helped win them three elections, in 1958, 1960, and 1962, but it also helped bring about the Cuban missile crisis and durably poisoned the political atmosphere around national-security issues. After Sputnik was launched on Oct. 4, 1957, President Eisenhower reacted calmly; he knew that by not complaining about the overflight of U.S. territory by the Soviet spacecraft, he was setting a precedent. He understood the significance of Sputnik in large part because in 1953, almost immediately after taking office, he had ordered work to begin on America's first spy satellite, the WS-117. As the Russians were basking in the glow of their space triumph, Deputy Secretary of Defense Donald Quarles said that the Soviets "might have done us a good turn unintentionally, in establishing the concept of international freedom of space." Three years later, when the first U.S. spy satellites successfully delivered pictures from deep inside the USSR, no one in Moscow denounced the Americans for violations of the sacred airspace of Mother Russia. The U.S. no longer needed to fly U-2 missions in order to look inside their borders. It is hard to imagine today what a huge advantage totalitarian states had in the pre-Sputnik era. They were closed societies, allowing the rest of the world to see only a carefully molded image of military strength, political regimentation, and economic success. They were aided in this by Western intellectuals, journalists, and celebrities such as George Bernard Shaw, Walter Duranty, and Charles Lindbergh. From Hitler's march into the Rhineland in 1936 to the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, Western governments had to estimate the strength of their enemies in a fog of ignorance. Spy satellites dispersed that fog. Totalitarian power became a lot less total. From a strategic point of view, Sputnik was a Soviet blunder of the first magnitude. If the Americans had gone first, it would have given Russia a chance to demonize all space operations as imperialist aggression in the heavens. Every U.S. satellite launch would have been denounced as a crime against humanity. The U.S. space program in both its civil and military aspects would have been crippled. But from a propaganda point of view, Sputnik was a triumph, and in this they were aided and abetted by America's Democrats. President Eisenhower later wrote that "in the weeks and months after Sputnik, many Americans seemed to be seized with a sudden worry that our defenses had crumbled, but also with an equally unjustified alarm that our entire educational system was defective." The Democrats would not let a good crisis go to waste. Sen. Stuart Symington (D., Ct.) was one of those who accused the Eisenhower administration of being in a "state of complacency not justified by the facts." He claimed that by 1962, Russia would have 3,000 intercontinental ballistic missiles. Official U.S. intelligence estimates gave that number as 500; the recently published third volume of Boris Chertok's memoir Rockets and People: Hot Days of the Cold War claims that in 1962, "the US had 5,000 units of nuclear weaponry supported by delivery systems (to strike the territory of the USSR) against the USSR's 300 units." Yet the Democrats launched an unceasing campaign on the theme of a missile gap. Accusing Eisenhower, of all people, of failing to understand a vital military question would seem ridiculous. But thanks to Sputnik, to the need to keep America's spy-satellite program secret, and to the partisans in the media, they convinced a lot of voters that the Republicans had neglected the defense of the nation in favor of budgetary restraint. This after eight years in which more than 10 percent of GDP had been devoted to defense, and in an era when the U.S. still had a largely conscript force. In fact, by 1960, the U.S. led the Soviets in every aspect of nuclear weapons and delivery technology, especially in submarine-launched missiles. Instead of listening to the president's reassurances, the media chose to believe Khrushchev's claim that missiles were coming off the Soviet assembly lines "like sausages." In the 1960 election, John F. Kennedy promised to close the missile gap. He taunted Richard Nixon, saying, "I think that color television is not as important as rocket thrust." Given the briefings he had received, he knew that the U.S. was ahead in both television and rockets, but he could not let the truth get in the way of a good political jab at Nixon. At least one biography claims that as president, JFK said, "Who ever believed in the missile gap anyway?" When the Kennedy administration exposed the Soviet bluff, Khrushchev's response was to deploy almost all of his medium- and intermediate-range missiles to Cuba. Having relied on the illusion of the missile gap for so long, the Soviet leader thought he had to make a desperate gamble in order to restore his lost prestige. If, beginning in 1957, the Democrats had clearly and explicitly said that Eisenhower's sober assessment of the balance of forces between the two superpowers was largely correct, the world might have been spared that near catastrophe. The Democrats did seize the "Sputnik Moment" to expand the federal government's role in education. Eisenhower conceded that there was a national emergency that justified temporarily spending federal dollars on science and math instruction, and thanks to his support, the National Defense Education Act passed Congress in August 1958. The act allocated $1 billion over four years. But Eisenhower feared the impact this money would have. He wrote, "the process of taking money away from citizens to return it to localities for special (educational) purposes implies a centralization of wisdom in Washington that certainly does not necessarily exist." The Nation, then as now the principal voice of the Left, wanted more, but noted that "the bill does at least crack the ice of resistance to federal aid to education." How right they were; there is nothing quite so immortal as temporary government spending. In spite of all the racial injustices that thrived in late-1950s America, its overall educational standards are now to be found only in places such as Singapore and South Korea. Study after study shows that our educational system results in "A Nation at Risk," the federal government's investment grows, and the system keeps failing. President Obama's call for 10,000 new science, technology, engineering, and math teachers will probably result, if enacted, in the hiring of a new cohort of propagandists for whatever scare the environmentalists have cooked up this month. If America were going to hire 10,000 math and science teachers of the quality we had in 1958, it might be worth it. Now, however, teachers who've been trained to believe in the "Pedagogy of the Oppressed" and whose vision of America owes more to Howard Zinn than to Samuel Eliot Morison are going to be no more competent at teaching molecular biology than they are at teaching why the Battle of Midway is important. In addition, the president did not address the broad failure of America's engineering schools to adapt to the complexities of today's high-performance technology. Only a few mavericks understand that the old design habits of systems engineers that worked so well on the Apollo program are ill suited to the needs of today's projects. Our universities, corporations, and entrepreneurs need to rethink the way engineers are trained. No amount of federal money can substitute for this lack of leadership. When President Obama said that "we didn't know how we'd beat them to the moon," and that "the science wasn't there yet," he was misinformed. German Walter Holman worked out the basic mathematics of getting to the moon in 1916. In America, Robert Goddard published the basic principles of liquid-engine rockets in 1920, though his argument was controversial at the time. (The New York Times editorial page said he "seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in our high schools." On July 20, 1969, as Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walked on the moon, the paper published a correction.) The "Sputnik Moment" was a very real moment in American history. It just doesn't mean what President Obama thinks it does.

Friday, January 28, 2011

World Muslim Population Doubling, Report Projects
(CNN) -- Twenty years ago, the world had about 1.1 billion Muslims. Twenty years from now, it will have about twice as many - and they'll represent more than a quarter of all people on earth, according to a new study released Thursday. That's a rise from less than 20 percent in 1990. Pakistan will overtake Indonesia as home of the largest number of Muslims, as its population pushes over 256 million, the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life projects. The number of Muslims in the United States will more than double, to 6.2 million, it anticipates. Afghanistan's population will nearly double, to about 50.5 million, making it home to the ninth largest Muslim population in the world. Israel will become nearly a quarter Muslim. The Palestinian territories have one of the highest growth rates in the world. Fractious Nigeria, where Christian-Muslim violence has left thousands dead in the past decade, will become a Muslim-majority country by 2030, the Pew Forum projects. And two western European countries - France and Belgium - will become more than 10 percent Muslim. Sweden will hover just below that level, at 9.9 percent. Iran, on the other hand, will see very slow growth. Iranian women have among the fewest children of anyone in the Muslim world. They use birth control at exactly the same rate as American women, 73 percent. The Muslim share of the global population will rise primarily because of their relatively high birth rate, the large number of Muslims of childbearing age, and an increase in life expectancy in Muslim-majority countries, according to the report, "The Future of the Global Muslim Population." Conversion will play relatively little part in the increase, the report anticipates. It says little data is available on conversion, but what little there is suggests Islam loses as many adherents via conversion as it gains. Pakistan's rapid growth - adding an estimated 70 million people in 20 years - could create "a potentially lethal cocktail," said Ghaffar Hussain of the Quilliam Foundation, which calls itself and anti-extremism think tank and does work in Pakistan. "Pakistan is an unstable country, there are literally hundreds of jihadist groups," he said. And the government is not doing much to slow population growth, unlike in nearby Bangladesh, he said. "In Bangladesh they have tax incentives not to have large families. Pakistan doesn't have that strategy - they're not even talking about it," said Hussain. "More effort should be made to finding some solutions, especially in the border region with Afghanistan," he advised. Governments in Europe, meanwhile, should do more to explain the value of immigration, he argued. Muslim growth there "is coming from the first generation having large families" and will slow down, he predicted. But the large new Muslim populations are not always welcome, he said. "A lot of European countries don't tell their people we need immigration for (economic reasons)," he said, adding that government also should do more to help new immigrants assimilate. European government need "some sort of strategy of what to do when people come. Integration has been managed very badly," he said. The key phrase in the Pew Forum report is "growing but slowing," says Alan Cooperman, associate director of the think tank. The increase in the last 20 years is greater than what we expect in the next 20 years," he said. Muslim population growth "is a line that's flattening out. They're increasing, but they're getting closer to the norm, the average." In other words, Muslims are coming into line with global trends toward fewer children per woman and an aging population. But, the report points out, because of the existing Muslim "youth bulge," or unusually high percentage of young people, Muslim population growth has a certain momentum that will take decades to come into line with world averages - if it ever does. The Pew report, more than a year in the making, is part of an ambitious attempt by the think tank to calculate the number of adherents to each of the world's major religions. The Islam report comes first, and a Christian project is in the works. They started with Muslims, Cooperman said, because they are "the largest group for which data was lacking, and we saw public interest in knowing more." Despite the rapid growth of Islam, Christianity seems set to remain the biggest religion in the world for the next 20 years. There are currently more than 2 billion Christians - 30 to 35 percent of the global population - making it very unlikely that there will be fewer than 2.2 billion Christians in 2030. "There is nothing in these numbers to indicate that in 2030 there would be more Muslims that Christians," Cooperman said. In fact, both Christianity and Islam could be growing, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the whole, he pointed out. "We don't want people to jump to the conclusion that if Islam is growing, everyone else is shrinking," he said. "Christianity and Islam could both be growing at the expense of other religions." Sub-Saharan Africa is a case in point, he said. "Tremendous numbers are being added in sub-Saharan Africa, but... Christianity and Islam are both growing rapidly. There is not a change in the overall proportions of Muslims to Christians." He's aware that the report has policy implication, but insists that the purpose of the Pew Forum is simply to provide unbiased data. "It's not our role to say what should be done," Cooperman said. What they're aiming to do, one of the project's leader said, is to make sure there's reliable information available. "There has been a lot of speculation about the growth of the Muslim population around the world, and many of those who speculate don't have good data," said Brian Grim, a senior researcher at the Pew Forum. For example, the report undermines the notion that Europe is heading toward having any country with a Muslim majority. The continent will be about 8 percent Muslim in 2030, it projects. "The data that we have isn't pointing in the direction of 'Eurabia' at all," Grim said. "The Muslim population is growing and slowing. Instead of a runaway train, it's trending with the general global population," he said. Cooperman hopes that information will help make for more intelligent discussions, he said: "In the midst of heated debate and speculation, we think that solid, reliable, empirical estimates are valuable."
Vatican Urges Action To Keep Iraq's Christians From Leaving
BAGHDAD -- The Vatican's ambassador to Iraq, Archbishop Georgio Lingua, has called for action to be taken to help Christians stay in the Middle East, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq reports. Archbishop Lingua was visiting the Kurdish region, where many Iraqi Christians have fled following attacks in Baghdad and other parts of the country. He told RFI that "it is painful for us to see Christians migrating from Iraq toward Europe, as well as what is happening to Christians throughout the region." Lingua said that "to stop this exodus we should work together to induce Christians to stay in the region by enabling them to have a decent life." The papal envoy said he is visiting the region for several days to see for himself the conditions in which Christians live in Kurdistan, especially those displaced as a result of violence in other parts of the country. Kamil Haj Ali, the Kurdish Regional Government's (KRG) endowments and religious affairs minister, told RFI that the KRG attaches great importance to Lingua's visit so that "[he] can directly acquaint himself with the interfaith tolerance and peaceful coexistence in Kurdistan." Ali said the teachings of Islam "hold us as people and a government duty bound to maintain this peaceful coexistence and defend the Christians living in the region." Endowments and Religious Affairs Ministry spokesman Othman al-Mufti told RFI that Lingua's visit offers an opportunity for the papal envoy to see himself that the region's Christians are treated as equal citizens, and thus convey a truthful view of the situation in Kurdistan to others. Hundreds of Christian families fled to the Kurdish region from other parts of Iraq in the wake of recent attacks that left dozens of Christians dead. Iraq's Christians, who once numbered 1.5 million, have frequently been targeted by Islamic militants since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, with churches bombed and priests assassinated.
US Congress Urged to Condemn Egypt Church Attack
WASHINGTON (AFP) -- Key US Senator Robert Menendez has filed a resolution condemning the deadly attack committed against a Coptic Christian church on New Year's Day in Alexandria, Egypt. The resolution introduced Tuesday urges the Egyptian government "to fully investigate the bomb attack and to lawfully prosecute the perpetrators of this heinous act." Threatening to exacerbate tensions between Muslims and Egypt's minority Christians, a suicide bomber killed 23 people, Egyptian authorities said, outside a church in the northern city of Alexandria after a New Year's Eve mass at the start of 2011. The resolution, which could be adopted later Thursday or in the coming days, asks that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his government "enhance security for the Coptic Christian community" and ensure "religious freedom and equality of treatment for all people in Egypt." Menendez, a member of the influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has support for his resolution from many fellow Democrats, as well as some Republicans. "I hope that this tragedy will serve as a wake-up call for President Mubarak to remedy the ongoing legal and social disparities faced by Coptic Christians in Egypt," Menendez said in his statement. The senator from the northeast state of New Jersey added that "the current demonstrations in the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez have encapsulated the public demand for broad democratic reforms, which I hope will start with free and fair presidential elections later this year." No on has claimed responsibility for the attack, which came after an Al-Qaeda-linked group in Iraq threatened Egypt's Copts after saying it carried out a deadly October assault on a Syriac Catholic church in Baghdad. Mubarak has vowed to catch those responsible, and has called it a foreign "terrorist operation." Egypt's Christian community comprises 10 percent of the country's population of 80 million. Meanwhile, Mubarak's regime has been challenged since Tuesday by unprecedented protests that have resulted in seven deaths and more than 1,000 arrests. A similar resolution could be put forward in the US House of Representatives.