Is New Lebanon Government a Little Hezbollah -- or a Lot?
How much of a banned terrorist organization is too much? That is, effectively, the question the Canadian government has posed about Lebanon. In Gaza, the Conservative government has maintained they will have no truck or trade with a government of Hamas, which it has listed as a banned terror entity. But there's no black and white in Lebanon, where the political system is based on sectarian power-sharing and shifting alliances of factions. So the Canadian government put out a statement Wednesday urging all factions in Lebanon to work together, but also warning it won't work with the new government if Hezbollah -- also a banned terror group -- is on top. With the turmoil in Egypt and Tunisia, the power shift in Lebanon has attracted less attention, though it has also seen angry street protests. Some fear it will have dramatic impact, bringing Lebanon under direct control of Hezbollah, and indirectly, Iran. Because it's Lebanon, it's a murky question: some think it's a much more minor shift. Canada is still gauging whether the new government is a little Hezbollah, or a lot. The Foreign Affairs Department issued a statement noting that Hezbollah is banned in Canada, and said the government will have "full contact" with non-Hezbollah members of the cabinet, but none with Hezbollah officials. "It will be difficult for Canada to work with a new government if Hezbollah plays a leading role," it said. That fear is alive because the fallen, Western-supported government of Saad Hariri is being replaced by Hezbollah-backed prime minister-designate Najib Mikati. The question is whether he'll be a Hezbollah proxy or another balancer of competing factions. Canada, of course, isn't the biggest player in a country that is the scene of international machinations by the United States, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and others. But it does have an interest in stability and a part in international pressures that have an impact -- and business and diaspora ties. There are hundreds of thousands of Lebanese-Canadians watching closely. Many are first-generation immigrants, as well as dual citizens, air-lifted out during the Israeli offensive in 2006, who never went back. The community is now mixed between Christians and Muslims, both Shiite and Sunni, who support different sides in Lebanon. If there's a common denominator, it's a concern the country will break down into factional strife. "The first generation is still close to the politics of Lebanon," said Nabil Fawaz, president of the Montreal-based Lebanese-Canadian Heritage Association. "I'd say that they are very concerned. "The general view is that this could be a preview of what we witnessed 15 or 20 years ago: sectarian discourse -- not necessarily violence, but disruption of daily life and political unrest." Lebanon's politics is always about shifting factional alliances in power-sharing arrangements between the country's Christians, and Shiite and Sunni Muslims. Hezbollah is supported by the county's Shiites, but the prime minister must be a Sunni. Mr. Mikati is a Sunni backed by Hezbollah, but Mr. Hariri's government also had Hezbollah members. "You cannot ignore the power of Hezbollah. They represent over 50 per cent of the population of the nation," Mr. Fawaz said. "I think if push comes to shove, they would be supported by the Shiites." But for the West, and for Canada, the question is whether Hezbollah influence becomes dominance and control. Hezbollah is backed by Iran and Syria and has been used as a proxy against Israel. The United States and the West have worked to limit the militant group's role. Some believe Mr. Mikati, a Sunni businessman from northern Tripoli, will be more sympathetic to nearby Syria, but will try to keep Iran's influence at bay; that he doesn't share Hezbollah views, and wants to maintain international business links. Paul Kingston, a University of Toronto expert on Lebanese politics, argues that the new government won't be dramatically different from Mr. Hariri's, because it's still constrained by the same power-sharing and international pressures. What Hezbollah mainly wants, he argues, is another prime minister, and a government that will disavow the international Special Tribunal for Lebanon into the 2005 assassination of Mr. Hariri's father, late prime minister Rafik Hariri. That tribunal -- whose prosecutor is Canadian Daniel Bellemare -- has delivered indictments expected to implicate Hezbollah members. A disavowal of the tribunal would be a setback for western and U.S. policy, but the question of whether Hezbollah, and the influence of Iran, dominates Lebanese politics will also be judged by Mr. Mikati's other moves: the role of Hezbollah members in his cabinet the decisions it takes in coming months. And Canada's engagement with the Lebanese government, it seems, depends on how much Hezbollah it sees.